Moon race rekindled: robots may soon outpace astronauts

A renewed fervor for lunar exploration is gripping the globe, fueled by a competitive dash between the United States and China to establish a permanent presence beyond Earth. The 2020s are witnessing a dramatic resurgence of the ‘Apollo spirit,’ with ambitious plans for crewed missions to the moon by the end of the decade, and ultimately, Mars.

Strategic stakes and mounting costs

NASA’s Artemis program, already consuming a staggering $100 billion (£75 billion) to date – a ‘one big beautiful bill’ approved by Congress in July 2025 – is poised for further expansion, encompassing the development of a sophisticated lunar base. But the question isn’t simply if we’ll return to the moon, but why.

The scientific rationale – detailed geological surveys, the potential to unlock secrets about solar system formation, and the provision of an unparalleled radio astronomy platform shielded from terrestrial interference – is compelling. Yet, a critical reassessment is underway. The remarkable advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence are rapidly eroding the perceived need for human astronauts on these missions.

Robots: the new frontier pioneers

Consider the successes of missions like Curiosity and Perseverance on Mars. These rovers, operating autonomously for years with minimal human intervention, have consistently exceeded expectations. As D’Aversa aptly observed, “If the human element had been removed, several copies of the HST could have been built and launched with the money saved.”

The diminishing value of humanity

Within a decade, sophisticated robotic fabricators could conceivably construct and maintain lunar infrastructure without requiring direct human oversight. Mineral extraction, once requiring specialized expertise, could be entirely automated. The practical argument for sending humans into space – increasingly – hinges on a desire for adventure, a costly sporting endeavor best suited for the ultra-wealthy.

China’s ascendancy

Meanwhile, China is aggressively pursuing its own lunar ambitions. Recent successes – including the deployment of robotic explorers to the far side of the moon and the retrieval of the first lunar soil samples – demonstrate the nation’s burgeoning capacity in space research. Their plans for a lunar base by 2028, coupled with the anticipated deployment of a human crew, signify a deliberate effort to enhance China’s prestige and global influence. The image of Chang'e-6 landing on the far side is a testament to this drive.

A shifting paradigm

The fundamental difference between the Apollo era and the mid-2020s lies in the exponential leap in robotic capabilities. Improvements in sensors and AI will enable robots to independently identify and prioritize sites for sample collection, rendering human presence largely redundant. The cost, and potentially the risk, associated with sending astronauts is increasingly being weighed against the demonstrable efficiency and longevity of robotic explorers.

Martin Rees, the astronomer royal, succinctly captures the evolving dynamic: “As robotics and miniaturisation improve, the practical and scientific case for any human spaceflight weakens.”

Beyond the stars, a political game

Space exploration, inevitably, is intertwined with geopolitical strategy. The race to the moon, and beyond, is as much a contest for national pride as it is a scientific endeavor. The ambition to establish a foothold on another celestial body is a powerful symbol of technological prowess and a testament to a nation’s vision.