Trump's volatile visit to beijing: a summit of geopolitical peril
Donald Trump's erratic presidency has long been a global wrecking ball, smashing up international order without regard for the consequences. His upcoming summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing promises to be a perfect storm of diplomatic peril, as the US president's desperate bid for a foreign policy triumph collides with China's strategic interests.
Trump's weak hand
Trump's hopes for a victorious trade deal are overshadowed by his latest military misadventure, the fraught standoff between China and Taiwan. He needs Xi's assurance that China won't arm Iran if fighting resumes, and for Beijing's help keeping the Strait of Hormuz open as part of a mooted framework peace deal.
The weakness of Trump's position is fueling speculation that reduced US support for Taiwan may be Xi's price for playing nice. Xi knows the Iran war is deeply unpopular with US voters, who blame Trump for pushing up global energy, food and medicine prices. European allies have refused to bail him out, Russia is undeservedly benefiting from inflated oil prices, and poorer countries bear the brunt.
Xi's advantage
For China, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. Thanks to him, the US is increasingly viewed internationally as an aggressive potential enemy or unreliable friend, given over to treachery. Its loss of influence and leverage is Beijing's gain: Trump's volatility assists Xi's promotion of China as the new guardian of global stability.
The Iran impasse is drawing US forces away from Asia, reducing its military capacity to defend Taiwan and regional allies from future Chinese aggression. The downside for Xi is the negative impact of the war on energy prices, global trade and export demand at a time when China's economy is already struggling.
China's leverage
China is urging both sides to embrace a negotiated settlement, hosting direct talks with Iran's foreign minister and backing Pakistani intermediaries. Gulf states are counting, like Trump, on Beijing's ability to influence its Iranian ally, with which it launched a