Houthi entry into iran war: red sea chaos looms
The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a new, perilous phase with the Houthis’ formal involvement, raising the specter of a severely disrupted Red Sea trade route. The question now is whether the Iranian-backed Yemeni group will opt for limited missile and drone strikes against Israel, or leverage its strategic control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait to effectively block shipping lanes, mirroring Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Red sea blockade threatens global economy
The stakes are extraordinarily high. A combined closure of these two vital waterways, impacting commercial traffic from nations unwelcome to both Iran and the Houthis, could trigger a devastating ripple effect across the global economy. Napoleon’s observation that “the policy of a state lies in its geography” resonates with stark urgency. The Houthis, a resilient Shia movement controlling much of Yemen since 2014, have a long-standing animosity toward Israel. Despite a devastating Israeli strike in August 2025 that targeted their leadership – including the prime minister and chief of staff – the elusive leader, Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, remains at large. While UN reports indicate Iran has supplied the Houthis with weaponry, the group hasn’t yet directly fought on Iran’s behalf.
A fragile ceasefire with the US, brokered by Oman and ending Houthi attacks on US shipping through Bab al-Mandab since October 2023, provided a temporary respite. This truce followed a series of increasingly precise US and UK strikes against Houthi missile launchers. The Houthis maintained that the ceasefire did not apply to Israel, and sporadic attacks continued. The initial impetus for the ceasefire was reportedly Tehran’s desire to build political momentum ahead of planned US-Iran nuclear talks in spring 2025. The Houthis extended this extension to Israel in October 2025 coinciding with Israel’s ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza.
Even after last year's 12-day Israeli-US assault on Iran, the Houthis largely refrained from direct engagement. However, major shipping companies like Maersk have been cautiously resuming traffic through the Red Sea, opting for the longer, more expensive route around the Cape of Good Hope. The Bab al-Mandab, a narrow strait connecting Yemen to the Horn of Africa, has historically been vulnerable to Houthi drone, missile, and small boat attacks.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a Middle East specialist at the London-based Chatham House, warns that sustained disruption will inevitably drive up shipping costs and oil prices, adding further strain to a global economy already struggling with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. He predicts that the perception within Yemen of the Houthis’ subservience to Iran will intensify over time. The Houthis may be exercising caution, partially motivated by the prospect of financial rewards from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has recently consolidated its authority in southern Yemen, effectively quashing the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which had previously received support from the UAE under Riyadh’s pressure. With the UAE now largely withdrawn from Yemen, Saudi Arabia faces the daunting task of forging agreements with both former STC allies and the Houthis.
While the STC has formally disbanded, it remains a potent force, poised to capitalize on any failure by Riyadh and the UN-recognized government in the south. Riyadh, constrained by multiple regional conflicts, will likely explore unconventional methods to reach a deal with the Houthis, mitigating the risk of Red Sea attacks. Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in the new southern government, and the Houthis in the north may seek a share of these financial benefits in exchange for refraining from renewed fighting in the south or disrupting Red Sea shipping. However, the Houthis’ strength lies primarily in their ability to disrupt commerce, not in direct military confrontation with Israel. This escalation threatens to further destabilize Yemen, a nation already ravaged by over a decade of civil war.
Hans Grundberg, the UN special envoy for Yemen, has warned that this escalation risks dragging Yemen further into the regional conflict, complicating the resolution of the Yemeni conflict, deepening its economic repercussions, and prolonging the suffering of civilians. His warnings, repeated several times, carry a chilling weight.
The implications extend far beyond Yemen’s borders. A prolonged disruption could reshape global trade routes and energy markets, potentially triggering inflationary pressures and exacerbating existing economic vulnerabilities. The Houthis' calculated gamble with the Red Sea is a high-stakes move with potentially catastrophic consequences.
The delicate balance of power in the region has been irrevocably altered. The Houthis, emboldened by Iran’s backing, are now positioned to inflict significant economic damage. The question remains: can diplomacy avert a full-blown crisis, or is the world bracing for a prolonged period of instability in one of the world’s most volatile regions?