Texas to add 278,400 jobs in 2026, forecasts dallas federal reserve

The dallas Federal Reserve predicts a significant increase in jobs across Texas in 2026, with the state's unemployment rate expected to remain relatively stable. According to the Texas Employment Forecast, released on April 3, the Lone Star State is projected to add 278,400 new positions this year, translating to a 1.9% job growth rate. This forecast is based on an average of four models that consider factors like national GDP, oil futures prices, and leading economic indexes for both Texas and the United States.

Employment growth strengthened in december and january

Dallas Fed senior business economist Luis Torres noted that employment growth in Texas notably strengthened in December and January, contributing to an increase in the employment forecast for 2026. However, he emphasized that expectations are for Texas employment growth in 2026 to be more in line with the lower end of the confidence band at 1.1%, given various headwinds. These include declining immigration constraining labor supply, higher productivity suppressing labor demand, moderation in business activity captured by the Texas Business Outlook Surveys, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

High oil prices are expected to boost state economic activity, but only if sustained. The forecast suggests that employment in Texas will reach 14.6 million by December 2026, with an annualized job growth rate of 2.2% in December and 2.3% in January.