Iran war exposes fossil fuel fragility; new climate push emerges
The ongoing conflict in Iran isn’t just a humanitarian crisis; it’s a stark illustration of how global instability is inextricably linked to our reliance on fossil fuels. Beyond the immediate devastation, the war's disruption of vital oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments underscores the precariousness of a world Economy built on a foundation of hydrocarbons—a foundation scientists warn is teetering on the brink of irreversible climate change.
A vetoed roadmap, a new strategy
Just last November, at the UN Cop30 climate summit, Saudi Arabia spearheaded a coalition of petrostates to block calls for a concrete “roadmap” to phase out fossil fuels. The very phrase “fossil fuels” was conspicuously absent from the final agreement—a testament to the entrenched power of these nations. But a shift may be underway. A coalition of 85 countries, frustrated by the stalemate, is now preparing to challenge this status quo.
On April 28-29, Colombia will host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels—a gathering deliberately designed to circumvent the UN’s consensus-based rules, which have historically allowed a handful of petrostates to derail progress. This conference isn’t about diplomatic rhetoric; it’s about economics. It’s about the implacable forces of the market and, potentially, the emergence of a new economic power bloc.
Co-sponsored by Colombia—the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter—and the Netherlands—home to Royal Dutch Shell—the conference has invited nations that supported the roadmap proposal at Cop30, alongside high-profile sub-national leaders like California Governor Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 presidential candidate. The goal is simple: to resurrect and refine the roadmap blocked in Dubai.
The numbers are staggering. These 85 countries, including economic powerhouses like Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Brazil, and Mexico, collectively boast a gross national product of $33.3 trillion—surpassing both the US ($30.6 trillion) and China ($19.4 trillion). This represents a significant leverage point.
“A coalition of that scale signaling its intent to move beyond fossil fuels would send an unmistakable message that the age of oil, gas, and coal is ending, and the smart money is shifting,” notes Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa.
Beyond subsidies: a new economic reality
The conference aims to tackle the thorny issue of fossil fuel subsidies—a staggering $7 trillion annually worldwide—without penalizing the communities and workers who depend on them. It’s a delicate balancing act, but one essential to a just transition.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged the International Energy Agency to create a “global platform” to facilitate the decline of fossil fuel investments alongside the rapid expansion of clean energy. But the real catalyst may be the economic imperative—the growing recognition that continued investment in fossil fuels is a path to stranded assets and diminishing returns.
The parallels to the 2015 Paris agreement are striking. When nations pledged to limit global warming, a wave of change swept through both the public and private sectors. Renewable energy investments surged while fossil fuel expansion plans were scaled back. The planet, once on track for a catastrophic 4°C rise, began to curve toward a 2.7°C future—a significant, albeit incomplete, step in the right direction.
California’s potential inclusion in this coalition further amplifies the economic power dynamic. Adding its $4.1 trillion GDP to the $33.3 trillion of the other 85 countries would create an economic superpower worth $37.4 trillion—a force that could reshape global financial markets and government policy.
Governor Newsom, dismissing concerns about US policy under the Trump administration, has declared California’s intention to “fill that void” and compete in the global market for green technologies. The Just Transition conference isn’t just about climate action; it’s about recognizing the overwhelming public demand for change—a demand shared by 80-89% of the world’s population—and seizing the economic opportunities that a fossil-free future presents. The time for cautious diplomacy is over. The future is being built, and it’s powered by something other than oil.